This week, we have Shutter Island, the thrilller/horror movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio. The preview clearly stands out from others, but not in a really quantifiable way.
Predicted IMDB Score: 7.2
Predicted Weekend Gross: $27 million
Preview here.
There are cool filters on some of the shots, and the shushing woman in every preview will haunt your dreams, but it's difficult to nail down exactly what makes this preview intriguing (which gives our model some trouble). It's likely some combination of Scorsese's direction and simply DiCaprio himself. I mean really, DiCaprio's 5 previous movies have received an average IMDB score of 7.8 which is quite stellar.
That said, this movie has been a long time coming. Previews started coming out sometime in the summer, and while the previews convey a great sense of mystery and foreboding, the ultimate conclusion of the movie, we feel, will follow a predictable, tragic trajectory.
On the flip side, being a long time coming means a lot of people will know of the movie. The sheer mass of advertising put into this movie will likely yield high revenues even if the movie is crap (for DiCaprio and Scorsese standards). Our predicted $27 million could very well be low.
Monday, February 15, 2010
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