Monday, March 1, 2010

Best Movie Ever?

Movies out this coming weekend are not many and are fairly low-profile.  The biggest one from what we can tell is Alice in Wonderland, and for various reasons, we aren't applying our prediction model to that preview.  However, we are bringing you something way better than Alice in Wonderland (even if it does star Johnny Depp).  It is a preview of what is predicted to be the greatest movie ever.  The catch is, though, that it isn't actually a movie.

Given our model is just a couple equations, we can apply it to pretty much anything, so we decided to apply it to this clip.

Predicted IMDB Rating: 9.1
Predicted first weekend gross: $160 million

With these numbers, the clip is set to be the highest grossing movie ever (just ahead of The Dark Knight), and tied with the best movie ever (right up next to The Shawshank Redemption according to this list).

Here's how it works...

So if you watched the clip, it was just an explosion montage featuring (depending on what you count) 36 explosions.

Our model takes the number of explosions into account in a non-diminishing way.  Or in other words, each explosion in the preview continually adds about 0.1 to the predicted IMDB score.  Meaning the clip got about 3.6 points in score just from explosions.  Similarly, in our (highly flawed) weekend gross prediction, each explosion earns the movie another $4 million, or cumulatively $144 million.

No comments:

Post a Comment