Review: Edge of Darkness with Mel Gibson

As stated in the first post, the purpose of this blog is to create movie reviews based on data taken from the movie's preview.  Here we give Edge of Darkness a score (based on IMDBs 1-10 ranking) and we also predict exactly how much it will make opening weekend.

Predicted IMDB score: 6.7

Predicted weekend gross: $35 million

Predicted per-theater gross: $8,000

Trailer here.

In about a week, we'll see how we do.  Details on the review after the jump.

As this is our first movie review, we should make a couple things clear.  These are statistical predictions, and as such, the above estimates are simply the most likely values.  The actual values (which we will find out in a few weeks) should fall around the above predictions.  Sometimes we'll be right on the money (hopefully), but inevitably other times, we'll be off.  Though these are statistical models, the variables underlying the models can be difficult to measure and might be of dubious prediction value.  We are using the number of explosions in a preview as a predictor after all (though this is an oddly significant variable with respect to weekend gross).  That said, we can try to temper these predictions with more speculation.

The IMDB score

A score of 6.7 indicates that Edge of Darkness will be above average.  According to this guy, the average movie rating on IMDB is around 6.4, giving Edge of Darkness a decided... edge.  However, Mel Gibson hasn't acted in anything since 2005 (thanks IMDB), and whether or not this will have dulled (or sharpened) his acting is up in the air.  From the preview though, it doesn't look like he does too much more than punch people in the face and shoot at them.

The Money
This is a tougher thing to predict than the IMDB score.  While presumably, who goes to see a movie would depend quite heavily on the preview, a lot of it has seemed to come down to simply how many theaters will be used and probably level of hype/advertising (two variables that we don't have much data on at the moment).  Our guess at this point is that our prediction of $35 million (technically $35,295,610.10) will be low.  There are few other movies opening next weekend, and again this is Mel Gibson's first role in 5 years.  But time will tell.  Expect a follow-up after next weekend.